Can the Mavericks finally cover a spread Plus other best bets for Thursday

Can the Mavericks finally cover a spread Plus other best bets for Thursday

I've never been shy about my lack of desire to see the College Football Playoff expand. The biggest argument was always for parity, as an expanded field would allow more teams the chance to compete for national titles. Well, last season shocked the world when it became the first team from the Group of Five to reach the playoff.This season, a team that went 5-7 last year and began the year unranked will play for a national title next week. Clearly, the only way for programs like Cincinnati and TCU to have a shot would be an expanded field! No way they'd get in with only four teams!I officially lost the battle a few weeks ago when it was announced that the CFP would expand to 12 teams in the future. I knew it was inevitable, and I often joked on The Cover 3 Podcast that a few years after the playoff expands to 12, everybody will demand it expand to 16. Henrik Borgstrom Women Jersey Well, it looks like I was wrong. It didn't take a few years, according to our own Dennis Dodd, .Maybe we can get it up to 32 by 2030! Or maybe we Aleksi Heponiemi Women Jersey can just call the regular season "the playoffs" and trick advertisers into paying more for commercials. Anyway, that's enough cynicism from me, let's get to some genuinely incredible news. ....Let's hit the hardwood. Latest Odds: Dallas Mavericks +3 Key Trend: The Celtics have failed to cover in five straight road gamesThe Pick: Mavericks +3 (-110)So, we haven't exactly been killing it to start the NBA season. Hopefully, with football slowing down, we can get a better handle on things going forward. No better time to start than tonight, right? Especially when we've got a game where I'm not sure the right team is favored.Yes, Boston is better than . The Celtics have the best record in the league, and it isn't by accident. They rank first in net efficiency as well. However, the Mavs are pretty dang good too! It's hard not to be when you have , but there's a weird thing happening with the Mavs this season. They cannot cover a spread to save their lives.The Mavs enter 13-23-2 record ATS. That 36.1% cover rate is the worst in the league. Often, a record like that is a reflection of a team being overvalued on the market, but I don't believe that to be the case with these Mavs. From an efficiency standpoint, this team ranks ninth in the league, and when it comes to cover margin (the average points a team is either covering or failing to cover by), they rank 21st. Boston, which is sixth in cover rate overall, ranks 19th in cover margin. Still, Boston's rankings don't affect my choice here as much as it's hard to think Dallas won't Mike Hoffman Kids Jersey begin progre sing to the mean at some point. It's playing too well not to. Tonight, as a home dog against a Boston team that's only 7-9 ATS as a road favorite this season and has been horrible defensively in the first two games of this current road trip, seems as good Connor Brickley Kids Jersey a time as any. . NBA Latest Odds: Over 230.5 The Pick: Over 230 (-110) --While I haven't had much early-season succe s in the NBA, the one thing that's been pretty solid has been overs in Magic games. They're only 19-17-2 overall, but there are certain matchups in which the Magic struggle that have been exploitable, and tonight is one of them. The Grizzlies rank third in defensive efficiency, but they move at such a high pace on the offensive end that you still see them playing in higher-scoring games. As a young team, Orlando often gets pulled into playing a style of game they aren't comfortable with. The Magic don't move as quickly on offense as the Grizzlies do, but if pushes the tempo, Orlando is likely to play along, which won't be great for them or their defense (which already ranks 24th in the league) but should be great for our over play. College Basketball Latest Odds: Wichita State Shockers +2 The Pick: Wichita State +2 (-110) --We're getting good value here on the Shockers, who have lost three of their last four, including a home lo s to a bad team their last time out. Still, while the Shockers are only 7-7 overall, I don't think they're much worse than the Bearcats -- particularly at home.Cincinnati is 10-5 but hasn't beaten anybody of note. Its best win is , and it's played the 250th overall schedule, according to KenPom. The Bearcats are coming off a road lo s of their own to a mediocre team and are 1-3 against top-100 teams this season. Wichita State's offense is a legit concern, but its defense is the best unit on the floor tonight, and Cincinnati doesn't exactly light up the scoreboard itself. This one Vladislav Kolyachonok Kids Jersey will come down to the last few po se sions. .
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